Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.099641 0.112245 0.125855 0.141649 0.159482 0.179002 0.202001
2025-12-14 0.075131 0.090728 0.108790 0.131274 0.158546 0.190599 0.231196
2025-12-21 0.058450 0.075184 0.095837 0.123247 0.158751 0.203295 0.263607
2025-12-28 0.048451 0.066122 0.089273 0.121910 0.166888 0.226924 0.313533
2026-01-04 0.039636 0.057177 0.081484 0.117754 0.170754 0.245767 0.360709
2026-01-11 0.033406 0.050783 0.076172 0.116157 0.177935 0.270398 0.420495
2026-01-18 0.028830 0.046054 0.072515 0.116380 0.187847 0.300674 0.494238
2026-01-25 0.023824 0.039855 0.065663 0.110547 0.187399 0.314964 0.545513
2026-02-01 0.019657 0.034341 0.059046 0.103998 0.184671 0.325091 0.591752
2026-02-08 0.016708 0.030420 0.054477 0.100181 0.185980 0.342278 0.653566
2026-02-15 0.014230 0.026940 0.050140 0.096058 0.186026 0.357184 0.713920
2026-02-22 0.012793 0.025154 0.048602 0.096899 0.195555 0.391360 0.818046
2026-03-01 0.010943 0.022333 0.044777 0.092863 0.195230 0.407121 0.889773
2026-03-08 0.009576 0.020265 0.042119 0.090776 0.198619 0.431216 0.984560
2026-03-15 0.008421 0.018451 0.039703 0.088807 0.201967 0.455949 1.086212
2026-03-22 0.007739 0.017548 0.039072 0.090651 0.214180 0.502568 1.248770
2026-03-29 0.006934 0.016242 0.037353 0.089732 0.219852 0.535249 1.384602
2026-04-05 0.006325 0.015290 0.036292 0.090197 0.228994 0.578026 1.555587
2026-04-12 0.005848 0.014579 0.035687 0.091687 0.241021 0.630328 1.763530
2026-04-19 0.005146 0.013200 0.033248 0.088098 0.239212 0.646618 1.875980
2026-04-26 0.004491 0.011836 0.030641 0.083625 0.234239 0.653607 1.963678
2026-05-03 0.004009 0.010854 0.028865 0.081111 0.234282 0.674597 2.098149
2026-05-10 0.003569 0.009913 0.027054 0.078191 0.232650 0.690579 2.221160